Plan capability, not just headcount.
Future demand minus current capability is a gap. The gap can be hired, developed, moved, partnered or augmented.
The problem
Headcount plans say how many people. They rarely say which capability is scarce, or which people already sit next to it.
The decision
For this capability, should we build, hire, borrow, move or augment — and what are we assuming?
How it works
- State the roles and the horizon.
- Read internal supply from confirmed skills and evidence, not from private chats.
- Compare scenarios. Each scenario lists time, effort, availability and risk as assumptions.
- ESI does not forecast that a job will disappear.
Example
A need for 50 data analysts over 12 months, starting from operations analysts, can be drawn as hire 20, reskill 20, move 10. That is an illustration of the structure, not a recommendation for any company.
Inputs
- A future capability
- Current roles in one function
- Hiring, reskilling and mobility options
Outputs
- A scenario: hire, reskill, move, or a mix
- The roles and evidence that scenario depends on
- What is still unknown
Pilot scope
Map one workforce function. Start with 5–10 roles, current capability, and one future planning horizon.
What the organisation sees
The organisation sees employment data, organisation assessments, organisation learning, organisation projects, and anything the person explicitly shares for that application or programme.
What the individual controls
Private career uncertainty is not an input to a workforce plan.
Explore. Select. Innovate.